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these were his predictions for states that john mccain was definitely going to win. >> john mccain is leading in the states he's got to lead in like ohio and florida. we'll pick up pennsylvania. we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican ca
these were his predictions for states that john mccain was definitely going to win. >> john mccain is leading in the states he's got to lead in like ohio and florida. we'll pick up pennsylvania. we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they...
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karen, let me play you something that john mccain said today. he was in ohio supporting the gop senate candidate but said very nasty words about the president and the 9/11 libya attack. take a listen to this. >> this president is either engaged in a massive cover-up concealing from the american people or is so grossly incompetent that he's not qualified to be the commander in chief of our armed forces. >> karen, like many of us, we respect mr. mccain's service to this nation both politically and militarily, but is it really appropriate on a day like this to start giving a commentary about the president of the united states in those tones? >> and also it's just very disappointing, martin. i think this is the complete political transformation of john mccain that we've seen. i used -- like you, i have had great respect for john mccain and he knows as well as anyone, and condoleezza rice herself went out and made the point in terms of the things that happened in benghazi and that information was changesiing, th that's what's happening. you have to g
karen, let me play you something that john mccain said today. he was in ohio supporting the gop senate candidate but said very nasty words about the president and the 9/11 libya attack. take a listen to this. >> this president is either engaged in a massive cover-up concealing from the american people or is so grossly incompetent that he's not qualified to be the commander in chief of our armed forces. >> karen, like many of us, we respect mr. mccain's service to this nation both...
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and then john mccain loses pennsylvania. >> guess what? >> sometimes traditions are broken. >> you kind of wonder if maybe with this record you might go just not going to go there. >> if you look at the polls you have to look at trends. and right now ohio is going to be very tough for him. and if there is a chance, if there's a place for him to try and do it it is pennsylvania. >> so that's where you go. >> that's where you go. because if you're going from 11, 10, 9 points out to now all of a sudden like 6 and it's closing 5, 4, it's worth a shot. not to mention you already put $15 million of advertising in there. they have to take a chance. >> okay. hey morris, president obama's camp is also putting money into pennsylvania big time. is that a sign that they are worried? or is that just sort of a token move because you have money to spend? >> it's a little bit like playing poker. you want to get check, you have to get check mate. that doesn't mean you're going to go all in the republicans have gone all in by sending their candidate there.
and then john mccain loses pennsylvania. >> guess what? >> sometimes traditions are broken. >> you kind of wonder if maybe with this record you might go just not going to go there. >> if you look at the polls you have to look at trends. and right now ohio is going to be very tough for him. and if there is a chance, if there's a place for him to try and do it it is pennsylvania. >> so that's where you go. >> that's where you go. because if you're going from...
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mccain. from the outside, romney's strength was also a liability. he was a suburban moderate republican with midwestern roots in a party that some call too conservative, evangelical and republican. as conservatives soured on the idea of a health care mandate, romney tried to inoculate himself on his achievement as governor. he says we can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country and it can be done without letting government take over health care. and it was done without government taking over health care. in june 2011 at a farm in new hampshire, romney officially announced his second bid for the presidency. >> just one of the guys running. >> the first element of becoming the front runner was keeping viable challengers out of the race and one by one they bowed out. finally the summer of 2011 a viable challenger got in, rick perry. they all surged to leads in the national polls before self destructing. finally romney ended up one on one with rick santorum. iowa where romney appear
mccain. from the outside, romney's strength was also a liability. he was a suburban moderate republican with midwestern roots in a party that some call too conservative, evangelical and republican. as conservatives soured on the idea of a health care mandate, romney tried to inoculate himself on his achievement as governor. he says we can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country and it can be done without letting government take over health care. and it was done without government...
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mccain didn't in 2008. this was a 10 or 11 point race in 2008. now two, three, four would be a lot for obama. you can go back to 2004, bush won a squeaker. in 2000 gore won it by 4,000. iowa is two states. we say it's a progressive tradition. there's a ton of social conservative, religious social conservatives in western iowa and there's also a lot of these white working class middle class voters as a demo brafic have turned hard on obama across the country. iowa, they are particularly pronounced in that state. a lot more for romney to work with. your point is key, i mentioned this last week on the show. in the 1980s iowa was an exception. the national economy was strong. farm economy collapsed in iowa and iowa took it out on george bush sr. we might see the opposite where the economy is weak in a lot of places but stronger in iowa. >> iowa voted for revenge. interesting. >> great reason to vote. >> to your point that's why the social consciences that's why mike huckabee and rick santorum do well in iowa. i
mccain didn't in 2008. this was a 10 or 11 point race in 2008. now two, three, four would be a lot for obama. you can go back to 2004, bush won a squeaker. in 2000 gore won it by 4,000. iowa is two states. we say it's a progressive tradition. there's a ton of social conservative, religious social conservatives in western iowa and there's also a lot of these white working class middle class voters as a demo brafic have turned hard on obama across the country. iowa, they are particularly...
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in 2008, john mccain visited pennsylvania the sunday before the election. he didn't make it. in 2004, bush visited pennsylvania the day before. he did. '96, bob dole was in pennsylvania the friday before. he didn't do well before. george herbert walker bush was in the state the day of the election in '92. he didn't make it. so it seems like it is republican tradition. and how is it going to turn out for them in your opinion? you're the expert on these things. >> it is the pursuit of fool's gold. they tried it since 1992. they haven't carried the state since 1998. the president is somewhere at about 50 and he is like five points, four points ahead. a lot of people have voted, as alicia said, you're not going to make that up. they got to look some place else and they decided to go to pennsylvania. they are talking about michigan. the president is well ahead in michigan. they are talking about wisconsin. >> in all these other states, bob, it is within the margin of error. so it is based a lot on who turns out. >> it'll be based on that. but one thing to say is i trust the nbc po
in 2008, john mccain visited pennsylvania the sunday before the election. he didn't make it. in 2004, bush visited pennsylvania the day before. he did. '96, bob dole was in pennsylvania the friday before. he didn't do well before. george herbert walker bush was in the state the day of the election in '92. he didn't make it. so it seems like it is republican tradition. and how is it going to turn out for them in your opinion? you're the expert on these things. >> it is the pursuit of...
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mccain did, as other republicans have over the last 12, 20 years, and they never carried the state. >> so why -- with that number, and the -- with the polling that has taken place in pennsylvania, what message is out there that gives the romney camp the idea they can win pennsylvania? why would they waste days in pennsylvania and not ohio and florida? >> i think they're worried that they can't crack ohio. the president went out there, defined mitt romney in the summer, mitt romney made some progress after that first debate, but ohio settled back down around where it was, i think really five or six points in the president's favor. so they have this dishonest ad on saying jeep is going to ship its jobs to china. and the great irony of that ad, by the way, in a news broadcast in ohio, you can see 22 consecutive political ads, the newscasters says romney has a fake ad about jobs being shipped to china. let's go to commercial break and you see the ad. so the ad is preemptively denounced. >> what about pennsylvania? could there be the calculation here that because of the storm, the easter
mccain did, as other republicans have over the last 12, 20 years, and they never carried the state. >> so why -- with that number, and the -- with the polling that has taken place in pennsylvania, what message is out there that gives the romney camp the idea they can win pennsylvania? why would they waste days in pennsylvania and not ohio and florida? >> i think they're worried that they can't crack ohio. the president went out there, defined mitt romney in the summer, mitt romney...
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mccain in 2008. and here's the recycled hand he work for mccain against primary opponent mitt romney. >> mitt romney seems to change positions like the wind. he tells florida he supports the bush tax cuts. but as massachusetts governor romney refused to take a position on the bush tax cuts. where does mitt romney? whichever way the wind blows. chris: and when we come back we've got a perfect storm coming ashore. that could affect things. and we have the big jobs number coming next friday. if it's bad, could it tip the election? plus scoops and predictions right from the notebooks of these top chris: welcome back. this friday, we're going to get last unemployment report before the election. will it continue the promising trend we saw last month when the rate droppedown to 7.8%? the lowest since president obama took office. voters, optimism, favor barack obama, in the last nbc "wall street journal" national poll. voters who expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months are for president obama. by
mccain in 2008. and here's the recycled hand he work for mccain against primary opponent mitt romney. >> mitt romney seems to change positions like the wind. he tells florida he supports the bush tax cuts. but as massachusetts governor romney refused to take a position on the bush tax cuts. where does mitt romney? whichever way the wind blows. chris: and when we come back we've got a perfect storm coming ashore. that could affect things. and we have the big jobs number coming next friday....
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states, so, yes, they will do better than john mccain did and we may not do as well as we did in 2008, but, we are doing plenty well and well enough to win the race. >> chris: let me ask you, briefly, about florida, where president obama is down by more than a point, in the polls. and yet you are making your final advertising by the campaign there. in florida. why not in the state you must win? >> well, first of all, we feel very competitive in the state of florida. there have been a spate of polls, in fact in all of these polls, battle ground state polls that came out the last 48 hours, we are ahead in 90% of them, including florida. and there were a couple of mixed polls in florida, but we are very pleased with where we are in early voting. and, we believe we are -- there, too, on election day, we'll go in with a large lead. and we are very competitive in florida and they know it because they are spending a lot of time there. if they were comfortable in florida, they wouldn't be spending as much time and money as they are spending, down there today. >> chris: david, when will we kno
states, so, yes, they will do better than john mccain did and we may not do as well as we did in 2008, but, we are doing plenty well and well enough to win the race. >> chris: let me ask you, briefly, about florida, where president obama is down by more than a point, in the polls. and yet you are making your final advertising by the campaign there. in florida. why not in the state you must win? >> well, first of all, we feel very competitive in the state of florida. there have been...
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john mccain. john kasich the governor, senator portman, senator graham. republicans from all over the country. they are all going to leave here and fan out over the country in support of mitt romney. i will be in wisconsin tomorrow. florida the next day. maybe pennsylvania. they are going to probably decide that as we move along. but the idea was all of the supporters here tonight supporting mitt romney and paul ryan and starting tomorrow morning they will all be in the different parts of the country probably mostly in the swing states. >> greta: is there any way to when he sure, ohio tonight? i know that everyone on the republican side says governor romney is going to win and everybody on president obama's side says he is going to win. how do you measure it tonigh >> i mean you know obviously, i guess an obama rally you would feel differently. at this rally it seems like he has enormous enthusiasm. this has the feeling of a winning campaign. the enthusiasm here tonight was tremendous. if this s a is swing state i feel good about it even if the polls abou
john mccain. john kasich the governor, senator portman, senator graham. republicans from all over the country. they are all going to leave here and fan out over the country in support of mitt romney. i will be in wisconsin tomorrow. florida the next day. maybe pennsylvania. they are going to probably decide that as we move along. but the idea was all of the supporters here tonight supporting mitt romney and paul ryan and starting tomorrow morning they will all be in the different parts of the...
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they will do better than john mccain. we may not do as well as we did in 2008 but we doing plenty well and well enough to win the race. >>chris: on florida, president obama is down by more than a point in the polls but you make the final advertising by the campaign there in florida, why not in the state you must win? >> we feel very competitive in the state of florida. there have been many polls and in all of the polls, the battleground state polls in the last 48 hours we are ahead in 90 percent including florida. there are a couple of mixed polls in florida but we are very pleased with where we are in early voting. we will go in election day with a large leap so we are competitive in florida and they know it. they are spending the time there. if they were comfortable in florida they would not spend as much time and money as they are spending. >>chris: when will we know who the next president is? will it come sooner than expected? or will this stretch into wednesday morning? >>guest: i think some of the cases are very clo
they will do better than john mccain. we may not do as well as we did in 2008 but we doing plenty well and well enough to win the race. >>chris: on florida, president obama is down by more than a point in the polls but you make the final advertising by the campaign there in florida, why not in the state you must win? >> we feel very competitive in the state of florida. there have been many polls and in all of the polls, the battleground state polls in the last 48 hours we are ahead...
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mccain and the republican party spent in total last time. it's a source of concern. it should be a source of concern to everyone. >> the republican allies like the coke brothers spent. the obama campaign made up the gap when it comes to costly television advertising. by embracing a target and the fdc gives them a discount on ad rates. i have kim barker, a reporter who writes about campaign finance joining us. thanks for coming back. >> thanks for having me. >> you have been doing fantastic. what is your sense of what the surprises are in this campaign and the post citizens united world and what are the predictions come true? >> a couple points. number one, you thought corporations were going to be spending a lot of money and giving money to the super pacs. you are not seeing that and seeing the donors come forward. one reason could be that you are seeing the spending by dark money groups. >> we don't know -- >> right. you have some sort of sense, for instance, that aetna gave millions of dollars to a group called american action network. tha
mccain and the republican party spent in total last time. it's a source of concern. it should be a source of concern to everyone. >> the republican allies like the coke brothers spent. the obama campaign made up the gap when it comes to costly television advertising. by embracing a target and the fdc gives them a discount on ad rates. i have kim barker, a reporter who writes about campaign finance joining us. thanks for coming back. >> thanks for having me. >> you have been...
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directly ahead, senator john mccain on who will win the presidency. he has some passionate thoughts about the libya situation. and later on. bernard mcquirk forced to evacuate hit home on long >> personal story segment. there's perhaps known more qualified in the country right now to speak about the last days of a presidential campaign than senator john mccain. four years ago he thought he would win the presidency. no he has some very strong views on what will happen tuesday night. also senator mccain is furious, furious about libya. i spoke with him last night. senator, first of all, are you surprised that the libyan story hasn't gotten much tracks 2349 media? >> i guess surprise isn't the word. i'm very, very deeply disappointed. but i guess that i'm not shocked about it. but it sure is reprehensible. >> do you think it's a protect the president play by the mainstream media where they just don't care about libya? >> i think it's some combination of that and other factors. but i can tell you, this is a case where four brave americans lost their lives
directly ahead, senator john mccain on who will win the presidency. he has some passionate thoughts about the libya situation. and later on. bernard mcquirk forced to evacuate hit home on long >> personal story segment. there's perhaps known more qualified in the country right now to speak about the last days of a presidential campaign than senator john mccain. four years ago he thought he would win the presidency. no he has some very strong views on what will happen tuesday night. also...
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barack obama had 53% to john mccain's 43%. what does it tell you? for weeks we have been hearing the media paint a storyline while obama is ahead in early voting. now we know that isn't true. particularly in states like ohio, florida, ohio -- >> dana: nevada. >> andrea: same thing, nevada. ohio fewer dems voted in ohio compared to 2008. 30,000 more republicans have voted. if obama had that lead with mccain and long at 2008, but only led by three points with likely voters romney leads the likely voters by five points. he won bison overall. if you look at the same panorama, it's all over. >> bob: in reality, you talk about the final vote in 2008 versus a week left to go to vote. people who vote early. you have to separate absenteeism from early voting. two separate things. people who vote early are senior citizens and they normally do. >> andrea: who leads with senior citizens? mitt romney leads. >> bob: right. >> andrea: independent and women. 3-point turnout advantage this time around swayed ten points to -- >> bob: you are taking something on elect
barack obama had 53% to john mccain's 43%. what does it tell you? for weeks we have been hearing the media paint a storyline while obama is ahead in early voting. now we know that isn't true. particularly in states like ohio, florida, ohio -- >> dana: nevada. >> andrea: same thing, nevada. ohio fewer dems voted in ohio compared to 2008. 30,000 more republicans have voted. if obama had that lead with mccain and long at 2008, but only led by three points with likely voters romney...
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john mccain says it's the latest probably not the last bit of information. all along it was not a spontaneous attack. >> it was a classic scandal where almost every day or every few days another shoe drops. it could be as bad as watergate but one of the veterans said nobody died in watergate. they have got pint. >>> this latest bit of information comes one day after we learn the security team in benghazi sent a secret table to the state department dated august 16th saying with their small security force they would not be able to fend off a terrorist attack. >>> it is direct evidence that will not relie on the evidence. it will not defend on the consulate. it is direct that it will the fbi is still conducting their investigation and the president isn't participating in the investigation. he is anticipating the results that can happen and lessons they learn to ensure it won't happen again. >> peter doocy reporting live for us. >> deadly overnight. the death toll stands at 90 and the number could in fact climb. more than 4 and a half million people are still wi
john mccain says it's the latest probably not the last bit of information. all along it was not a spontaneous attack. >> it was a classic scandal where almost every day or every few days another shoe drops. it could be as bad as watergate but one of the veterans said nobody died in watergate. they have got pint. >>> this latest bit of information comes one day after we learn the security team in benghazi sent a secret table to the state department dated august 16th saying with...
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or 5,000 and obama camp said he could only do, james john mccain, because e could not get the large event of people that senator obama could, and in the final weekend in cleveland, then senator obama had 80,000 people in cleveland. he is not getting anything near that in the final weekend. he had a rally in florida with a singer trying to get celebrity appeal with 20,000 people. there is a large group here still gathering and he will be here in a couple of hours in cincinnati. the ultimate rockstar is bill clinton in a chilly new hampshire city with 14,000. we have seen president obama adapt the clinton economic plan, the balanced approach in terms of deficits. and today he employed the anthem of bill clinton, playing at the end of the clinton obama rally in new hampshire "don't stop thinking about tomorrow." a song we heard in 1992 and 1996. i heard more veteran reporters saying they had not heard that song in 10 or 12 years and they are bringing it back. you can see president obama trying to ride president clinton's coat tails. remarkable when you consider four years ago during th
or 5,000 and obama camp said he could only do, james john mccain, because e could not get the large event of people that senator obama could, and in the final weekend in cleveland, then senator obama had 80,000 people in cleveland. he is not getting anything near that in the final weekend. he had a rally in florida with a singer trying to get celebrity appeal with 20,000 people. there is a large group here still gathering and he will be here in a couple of hours in cincinnati. the ultimate...
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about 30% voted for john mccain in '08. >> right. >> 10% said other, voted for someone else. so the question i think is do we think that history is a guide and they will fall back on habit and vote for him again or is it -- >> break for the challenger. >> they can't do it so that's why they're -- >> i want to ask you about increasing partisanship and why that's happening. why are there fewer people who belaf like this as we go through time right after we take take a break. >>> my understanding is everyone talks about the country getting more partisan, which means there are fewer of these folks. you're telling me that's not the case? >> well, in 2008 we also ran a big study like this, a panel over the course of the election, and we had about the same level of undecided voters in 2008 that we're seeing now. >> that's interesting because all the reporting has not been that. all the reporting says, you read this every political report says fewer undecided, more deadlocked, more partisan election. >> yeah. you know, all i can tell you is that -- >> your data. >> big panel over the
about 30% voted for john mccain in '08. >> right. >> 10% said other, voted for someone else. so the question i think is do we think that history is a guide and they will fall back on habit and vote for him again or is it -- >> break for the challenger. >> they can't do it so that's why they're -- >> i want to ask you about increasing partisanship and why that's happening. why are there fewer people who belaf like this as we go through time right after we take take...
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directly ahead, senator john mccain on who will win the presidency. he has some passionate thoughts about the libya situation. and later on. bernard mcquirk forced to evacuate hit home on long gecko (clearing throat) thank you, mr. speaker, uh, members of congress. in celebration of over 75 years of our government employees insurance company, or geico...as most of you know it. ...i propose savings for everyone! i'm talking hundreds here... and furthermore.. newcaster: breaking news. the gecko is demanding free pudding. and political parties that are actual parties! with cake! and presents! ah, that was good. too bad nobody could hear me. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. >> personal story segment. there's perhaps known more qualified in the country right now to speak about the last days of a presidential campaign than senator john mccain. four years ago he thought he would win the presidency. no he has some very strong views on what will happen tuesday night. also senator mccain is furious, furious about l
directly ahead, senator john mccain on who will win the presidency. he has some passionate thoughts about the libya situation. and later on. bernard mcquirk forced to evacuate hit home on long gecko (clearing throat) thank you, mr. speaker, uh, members of congress. in celebration of over 75 years of our government employees insurance company, or geico...as most of you know it. ...i propose savings for everyone! i'm talking hundreds here... and furthermore.. newcaster: breaking news. the gecko...
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caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients. we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of controlling on party. they do not control for party. you have seen in a short period of time, party identification jumping a good 10 points. you are generating a story rather than generating reality in terms of polling. all of the polls start coming back to the center. that is with the averaging does work. as you get closer to the election, surveys have a new ones because of the weighting on party. in 2008, we ended up with five polls that were exactly the same. guest: has citizen united affected the outcome? absolutely. it has made
caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients. we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of...
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mccain 4 years ago, because of early voting, one of the reason that democrats are so panicked renew, one reason they are trying to spend every possible tea leaf and discredit every national poll they could looking at hard -- they are looking at hard numbers from data poll numbers could one state they are not behind early vote numbers is colorado. problem is colorado happens to be one of the republican's strongest early voting states. there was a survey, by pew i believe, shows that obama is winning early vote by 7 points, he won is by 16 16, 4 years ago. lou: as we look at numbers, the fox polls the two men are locked up, 46% each. and that happens to be where the real clear politics poll of polls has this race. knotted up, even. with 5 days remaining before the election. your thoughts? >> well, here is the thing, momentum is with mitt romney, storm is a little bit of a bump. his numbers have been going up. and president obama's numbers down. with regard to early voting as well, democrat strategy to get as many people out to vote who are reliable voters while republican strategy to g
mccain 4 years ago, because of early voting, one of the reason that democrats are so panicked renew, one reason they are trying to spend every possible tea leaf and discredit every national poll they could looking at hard -- they are looking at hard numbers from data poll numbers could one state they are not behind early vote numbers is colorado. problem is colorado happens to be one of the republican's strongest early voting states. there was a survey, by pew i believe, shows that obama is...
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barack obama was more orderly than john mccain. george w. bush was more orderly than john kerry. and so if i'm a candidate this year, i'm trying to reassure people i'm the guy who can help you out when forces much bigger than you come in and give you a big wallop. >> you said a minute ago, you're not quite sure where mitt romney's soul is, and i think a lot of people, republicans included would agree with you about that. is he socially conservative? is he the massachusetts moderate? is he a small-government conservative? does that trouble you about what kind of president he would be? in other words, if we don't know who he is now, should we worry about who he would be if he got into office? >> yeah. it does trouble me. it disturbs me about how many different shapes he's taken. from a sheer management perspective. if you work in the reagan administration, if you started meeting at the deputy's level, you know what the president wants already, so you figure out how to enact what he basically wants. if you work for a president who doesn't know what he wants, then every policy decisi
barack obama was more orderly than john mccain. george w. bush was more orderly than john kerry. and so if i'm a candidate this year, i'm trying to reassure people i'm the guy who can help you out when forces much bigger than you come in and give you a big wallop. >> you said a minute ago, you're not quite sure where mitt romney's soul is, and i think a lot of people, republicans included would agree with you about that. is he socially conservative? is he the massachusetts moderate? is he...